3/19/2023 0 Comments Delve deeper![]() ![]() He felt that brands that want to grow faster than their competitors, and to see consistent increases in RoAS, should view advertising through the lens of their own first-party data.īy January 2011, Greg made a choice: rather than continuing down the CMO career path, he took the leap, quit his day job, and made DELVE his full-time gig. Specifically, he believed that measurement, data, and data science should be the backbone of any large-scale brand and performance advertising program. Contact us to discuss the forecasting practices that make the most sense for your company.From 1999 onward, our Founder and CEO Greg Sobiech had worked on both the agency side with Digitas, and on the client side managing digital budgets for Bath & Body Works and several Manhattan-based startups.ĭuring that time, Greg recognized that digital advertising had enormous potential for improvement. The optimal forecasting approach for any business will depend on multiple factors, such as its industry and customer base. To optimize inventory levels, consider forecasting demand by individual products as well as by geographic location. As you’ve likely learned over time, you’ve got to establish accurate methods of counting inventory and adjust levels as appropriate to best manage cash flow.įor peak accuracy, take the average of multiple forecasting methods. ![]() ![]() If you operate a business with extensive inventory, forecasting is particularly critical. Alternatively, you could base your forecast on historical data for a similar product or service in your lineup. If you want to forecast for something you don’t have data for, such as a new product or service, you might use qualitative forecasting. For instance, you’ll need about three years of data to use “exponential smoothing,” a simple yet fairly accurate method that compares historical averages with current demand. Quantitative forecasting techniques require varying amounts of historical information. These solutions allow you to plug other variables into the equation, such as the short-term buying plans of key customers. You also might want to invest in forecasting software. One example is “time-series decomposition,” which examines historical data and allows you to adjust for market trends, seasonal trends and business cycles. If demand for your products or services varies, consider forecasting with a quantitative method. For example, if you sell ski supplies and apparel, chances are good your sales tend to dip in the summer. ![]() Weather, sales promotions, safety concerns and other factors can cause sales to fluctuate. If you’re planning to forecast over several years, try qualitative forecasting methods, which rely on expert opinions instead of company-specific data. However, they don’t work well for long-term predictions. Quantitative methods, which rely on historical data, are typically the most accurate. The longer the period, the more likely it is that customer demand or market trends will change. Here are some tips to consider.įorecasting is generally more accurate in the short term. Forecasting key metrics - such as sales demand, receivables, payables and working capital - can help you manage overhead, offer competitive prices and keep your business on firm financial footing.Īlthough financial statements are often the starting point for forecasts, you’ll need to do more than just multiply last year’s numbers by a projected growth rate in today’s uncertain marketplace. For a company to be truly successful, its ownership needs to attempt the impossible: see into the future. ![]()
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